EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 15.02 – 22.02

Uptrend prevails. Local downward correction is nearing completion.Our pivot point is at the level of 1.3200.
Our opinion: Wait until correction finishes and reversal starts and buy above 1.3200 with the target of 1.38.
Alternative scenario: Downside breakout at the level of 1.32 will abolish anticipated scenario of development of the fifth wave and will enable the price to go down to the levels of 1.27 – 1.26.
Analysis: It is assumed that formation of the fourth wave of the diagonal in wave C is near completion. The target of correction completion is projected near the level of 1.33.




GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 15.02 – 22.02: Downtrend continues to persist. There is a chance of correction.Our pivot point is at the level of 1.5690.
Our opinion: Sell below 1.5690 with the target levels of 1.54 – 1.5340.
Alternative scenario: Upside breakout at the level of 1.5690 will give rise to the local correction and to the growth in the pair up to the levels of 1.58 - 1.60.
Analysis: Presumably, downward impetus in the form of wave 1 or A is nearing completion. Locally formation of the diagonal in the fifth wave will complete soon. Probably, upward correction will affect the entire decline from the levels 1.54 – 1.5340.




USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 15.02 – 22.02: Downtrend prevails. Local correction is near completion.Our pivot point is at the level of 0.9390.
Our opinion: Sell below 0.9391 with the target levels of 0.89 – 0.88.
Alternative scenario: Upside breakout at the level of 0.9391 will abolish anticipated scenario of downward movement and will enable the rise in the pair up to 0.95.
Analysis: Presumably, upward correction in the form of the second wave 2 оf iii of 3 is near completion. In the near future the price may reverse downward and downtrend in the third wave 3 of iii may resume.




USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 15.02 – 22.02: Downtrend prevails. Local correction is near completion.Our pivot point is at the level of 0.9390.
Our opinion: Sell below 0.9391 with the target levels of 0.89 – 0.88.
Alternative scenario: Upside breakout at the level of 0.9391 will abolish anticipated scenario of downward movement and will enable the rise in the pair up to 0.95.
Analysis: Presumably, upward correction in the form of the second wave 2 оf iii of 3 is near completion. In the near future the price may reverse downward and downtrend in the third wave 3 of iii may resume.




USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast for 15.02 – 22.02: Uptrend dominates. Growth in the pair may resume.Our pivot point is at the level of 0.9929.
Our opinion: Buy above the level of 0.9929 with the target levels of 1.02 – 1.03.
Alternative scenario: Downside breakout of the level of 0.9929 will accelerate downward correction in the second wave of the higher level to 0.9880.
Analysis: Presumably, local downward correction in the form of wave 2 of the estimated upward momentum in the third wave of the higher level has completed. Uptrend may resume in the near future.

Euro Falls As G20 Meeting Begins

Euro vs UK Sterling (FX:EURGBP)

Gráfico Intraday de Câmbio

The euro slipped against other major currencies on Friday, as a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Twenty (G20) nations commenced in Moscow. The two-day meeting attended by finance ministers and central bank chiefs will put forth currency exchange rate issues for discussion.

European Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann said that the central bank won't slash rates solely to manipulate the euro and the currency's exchange rate gain reflects improved confidence and outlook.

The euro was under pressure yesterday also as weak growth data out of Eurozone dimmed hopes for a recovery in early 2013.

Eurozone's trade surplus declined in December from a month earlier, the latest figures published by Eurostat revealed today. The surplus fell to EUR 11.7 billion in December from a revised EUR 13 billion in the previous month. Economists expected the surplus to fall to EUR 13.1 billion from November's originally estimated EUR 13.7 billion.

The euro fell to more than a 3-week low of 1.3313 against the greenback, down from an early high of 1.3394. The euro may find next support level at 1.325.

Against the yen, the euro reached 122.92 for the first time since January 30. If the euro extends slide, it may break 122.00 level. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 124.12.

Japan's industrial production grew 2.4 percent month-on-month in December, down from the 2.5 percent increase initially estimated, final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed today.

Compared to the same period of last year, output was down 7.9 percent.

The 17-nation currency dropped to 1.2293 against the franc reversing from an early high of 1.2334. The euro may face next downside target around 1.22 level.

The euro that fell to a 2-day low of 0.8577 against the pound recovered after U.K. retail sales. The pair closed yesterday's deals at 0.8626.

U.K. retail sales including auto fuel fell unexpectedly by 0.6 percent in January from the prior month, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent rise, following a 0.3 percent drop in December.

Likewise, retail sales excluding fuel dropped 0.5 percent month-on-month, after easing 0.4 percent in November. The decline was in contrast to a 0.5 percent increase forecast by economists.

Against the aussie, loonie and the kiwi, the euro fell to more than a 2-week low of 1.2853, fresh 3-week low of 1.3334 and a 5-week low of 1.5649, respectively. The euro may seek next support level around 1.28 against the aussie, 1.33 against the loonie and 1.56 against the kiwi.

The U.S. empire manufacturing for February, industrial production for January and the results of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey will be released in the North American session.

Canada's existing home sales for January and manufacturing shipments for December are also on tap in the New York session

Vendas no Varejo em Queda no Reino Unido, devido a Recessão

A divulgação de indicadores macroeconómicos de hoje de manhã foram mistos. O Reino Unido afunda-se nas Vendas a Retalho, devido à contracção da economia, e o indicador da Balança Comercial na Zona Euro subiu, as previsões davam sinal contrario. Podemos ter uma valorização do EUR/USD devido a este indicador. "Bom Sinal". Para a tarde poderemos ter alguma volatilidade com a divulgação da Produção Industrial nos EUA.

1. EUR/USD

Para o gráfico a 4 Horas temos para hoje apenas resistências. A primeira na linha Tenkan ao valor de 1.3384, a segunda na linha Kijun ao valor de 1.3417 e a terceira na entrada da "Cloud" a 1.3435



Para o gráfico diário temos para hoje, duas resistências e um suporte. O suporte encontra-se na entrada da "Cloud" a 1.3172 e as resistências estão na linha Tenkan a 1.3455 e na linha Kijun a 1.3485



2. GBP/USD

Para o gráfico a 4 Horas temos para hoje apenas resistências. A que está mais perto é a da linha Tenkan a 1.5507 e a segunda na linha Kijun a 1.5637



Para o gráfico diário temos para hoje apenas resistências, a primeira na linha Tenkan ao valor de 1.5654 e a segunda na linha Kijun ao valor de 1.5783